Thursday, March 18, 2010

Recession or Depression, Thoughts and Commentary


There is much to talk about, and many recommendations within this commentary. As the market corrects in coming weeks or days we see a number of buying opportunities.


For Conservative investors, consider:


Evergreen Investments Large Company Growth Fund

7.6% in Google, 7.4% in Amazon, 6.8% in Visa, 4% in UPS, 4.5 % in Oracle. Are just part of the top holdings that had it reach 63.07% growth last year, with a 5.38% year average.

This is a great mutual fund for a new subscriber that wants to buy a well diversified stable fund.

Now some “facts”

· 4100 executives, directors, and analysts chose these 10 as the most admired companies:

1. Apple

2. Google

3. Berkshire Hathaway

4. Johnson and Johnson

5. Amazon

6. Proctor and Gamble

7. Toyota

8. Goldman Sachs

9. Wal-Mart

10. Coca-Cola

· The total household debt in 2009 was 13.5 trillion, doing a proportionately good job to our national debt.

· Christopher Hayes in Fortune sounds just like Floyd, but nicer:

“In the past decade nearly every pillar institution in American Society—whether it be GM, Congress, Wall Street, Major League baseball, the Catholic Church, or mainstream media—has revealed itself to be corrupt, incompetent, or both.

And at the root of these failures are the people who run the institutions, the bright and industrious minds who occupy the commanding heights of our meritocratic order. In exchange for their power, status and remuneration, they are supposed to make everything operate smoothly.”

From Floyd: Simply put, we believed the fucks were in charge and were protecting us. We will now, and being fought all the way by the above, have to reform our institutions to reconstitute a more reliable and democratic form of authority.

However, Hayes says, “scholarly research show a firm correlation between strong institutions, accountable elites, and highly functional economies, compared to mistrust and corruption (what we have now) that creates mistrust and corruption, meanwhile, feed each other in a vicious circle.”

If our current crisis continues we risk a long and ugly process of “de-development: higher levels of corruption and tax evasion, and an increasingly fractured public sphere, in which both public consensus and reform become all but impossible.

In fact, a recent ad tells us “Achievement very rarely happens while doing yoga on a hilltop at sunset”.

Then, what is achievement?

Wilbur Ross: “I think a big opportunity is coming in the municipal bond market. Even if it doesn’t default, some state or local government will come close enough to scare everyone to death. That will be a wonderful buying opportunity”

Any of the Vanguard Municipal Bond Funds, either by your state and tax exempt, or general grade bonds, should be considered for their low fees and “index” management.

Are you shocked by Wall Street’s role in the now known Greek Debt Debacle? You shouldn’t be. This is how the big banks grind out the profits, on falsified financials and hiding data. After they did this Goldman and the boys actually placed bets that the debt wouldn’t be paid.

Remember this when you realize that 80% of the bills and cabinet posts Obama has tried to build or get through are NEVER EVEN VOTED ON, but held in some form of evil GOP filibuster to make an administration look as if they have done little right, when in reality they are thwarted by those (the GOP) that actually care less about their country NOW, but more about being the majority again in 2012.

We believe there are deep value opportunities in insurance stocks, which were beaten down because of their exposure to the subprime crisis, and commercial real estate. Many of these companies used to trade at 1.5 to 2.0% times earnings, but now trade at .75% of book value

Principal Financial Group, Des Moines, Ia, is a well run, conservative insurance company with no dirty hands that have touched it.

· We would recommend PFG at market with a PNF stop loss of 18.50 to 20.00, or double buys at these support lines for a long-term hold.

PFG will be held in our core portfolio.

Students of the future should be studying Africa, the new frontier for growth. More companies are cultivating change by making sure their investments are inclusive and sustainable in Africa.

They are figuring it out.

Bankers remain upbeat about the economic outlook for Africa a year after a drop in demand for commodities hit it. Longer term the need for commodities Africa holds will shift cycles in the laws of supply and demand.

Africa comprises 20.4% of the Earth’s landmass, and GDP growth keeps Africa in a positive relation to BRIC nations.

In the world of mobile telephony, Africa is the last great growth frontier, where penetration rates are 40 to 50%. MTN Group (MTN), which trades on the South African exchange, and over the counter as MTNOY. This is fast growing, cheap, risky value stock. Value stocks are typically not risky, but MTN faces the rivals of a burgeoning and confusing African economy, which we think is also the next international growth frontier

· MTNOY is so unknown it’s not yet even listed as a Pnf Chart, but it is not unknown around the world. It showed a 70% growth last year, and currently trades at $16.14. MTNOY is a value, long term play, we recommend in any speculative portfolio, using a 25% trailing stop loss.

Apple (AAPL) has hit new highs of 226.60. Those of you that joined us on our January 2011 $300 Call Leap on Apple have been pleasantly surprised already.

Holders of the stock in our portfolio have been handsomely rewarded.

This is a $300.00 stock. Buy it on any dips, or as the “world is falling” and hold.

They will have failures, successes, but Apple has CASH, brains, and thinks out of the box. They are innovators.

As an example, with Microsoft I think (control, alt, delete). They are a manufacturer, and less of an innovator.

“What has always distinguished a recession from a depression is that a stock market drop may signal a recession, but it is the collapse in debt that signals a depression” -keyturningdates.com