· China grows, and Chinese stocks go up, and many analysts believe they will continue to. In fact, we see China Mobile (CHL) and Petro China (PTR) are undervalued.
· Turkey is three years behind the market, and will move up dramatically in years. We’re high on GARAN.Turkey, Turyklye Garanti Bankasi on the Turkish Exchange.
This will be hard to find to trade, but check with your brokerage:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garanti_Bank
· We are also high on CZZ, Cosan, on the advent of what we think are higher sugar prices.
· Each of these above stocks we will list in our stock charts, and begin posting as buys. We want to buy on any dip to 10,780 or less. And hold.
· We will then hold each of the above positions with a 25% trailing stop loss, in our Speculative portfolio, also utilizing PnF charts.
· If your holdings approach 50, trim positions.
· Silver is actually leading Gold higher, while Gold holds in a trading zone that many believe will be a dip to support lines and several slow months, and others believe will it may follow commodities and the unstable Euro.
· There is a strong likelihood of the S&P below 1160, and the Dow below 10,790
· The NYSE composite and SOX hit new 2010 highs.
· Manufacturing is breaking out. Follow Market Vectors Steel ETF- SLX
SLX is a great ETF. We recommend following classic Pnf stop loss around support lines, watch the moving average, and begin taking profits at 25%.
· Crude is running up beautifully for the summer season, just as planned. Watch 83.20 for a sell signal. There may be a breather to crude
· Bonds should have more upside until late April, when we might have a correction, before a stronger upturn to bonds for the rest of 2010.
· A T & T pays a 6% dividend. How can anyone with cash not put cash someplace like this?
· We’ll go long on the Canadian dollar after a nice 2% correction, and stay long.
· Many Dow Theorists subscribe to our service. For those that understand this first note that it was the Dow transports that hit the new highs ahead of the Dow. Bears then saw that not as much was following along. This is called non -confirmation, or bearish divergence. In our daily OEX I call this “a trading range”. There is tight divergence, bullish or bearish, and we’ve seen many days of even moves up, always to show a bearish influence, but steady grounds.
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· Typically April has sell off built in. The market has edged up day-by-day, but # of stock advances to declines has not been rising. A move to 10,746 and to overall possible 486 point drop from the highest highs, or as low as 10,514.
· Floyd believes proper sell off, or distribution, “shakes out investors” and often then prepares the market for further upside.
· Far from guaranteeing success monopolies and cartels-whether devised businesses or conferred by government regulation-tend to make American companies lazy, fat, and dumb. And in stifling innovation, they shorten a corporation’s life
· And to counter this, French President Sarkozy said: “World economic regulations cannot go on as they are. We can’t accept a capitalist system with rules anymore”
· And Floyd said, “U.S. Stocks posted a fourth straight quarterly gain in the last three month period. The Dow itself rose 4.1%, its best first quarter performance since 1999, yet regulations have not yet begun, and more money in the market is still made manipulating stocks and options, and the facts of shortening corporate life are now false, as the economy is global.
· To the stupid old GOP: The U.S. Treasury plans to sell its 27% stake in Citigroup common stock in the next six months, potentially turning a profit of more than 7 billion. To all those in “The Tea Party” make sure not to mention any of this when you discuss deficits, so as to continue the half lies being spread. This we have found Sarah Palin is best at….stirring up false facts with “cute little lines” like “take America back”.
· Obama’s “drill baby drill” shocked us all, but those that know he is strategic in all of these moves and does plan to “Change” America he promoted this “give strategy” when all of us know that more drilling is not the answer to our consumption. However, Obama plans to push more for environmental protections, lost during the Bush years, and he “gives” before he pushes, I’ll bet.
· 228 stocks on average reached new 52-week intraday highs each day during this last quarter.
· Bullish? Birinyi Associates as top analysts see a 1325 S&P top, which would “translate to a multiple of 17 on the 2010 consensus, neither cheap or extraordinary”. He could be right. Some likely give back would be good, leading to more of a bullish run in 2010.
· The bottom line is that job growth momentum is improving. John Hermann at State Street says “by the third quarter, profits will be at a new all-time record high. That is a plus for the jobs outlook.”
· It’s taken a year, as the market began performing, for corporate profits to begin to catch up. Early last year the corporate profits were made because of the vast reductions in staff. This was a V shape bottom in the stock market; and we are seeing a V shaped chart building in the development of earnings.
· We assume that the first quarter earnings are going to be good, and that this will buoy the market; however, we also believe analysts will be watching and listening to the “tone and comments” of future earnings.
· They will be doing so because the great fear of a W, or a “double dip”, the fear of a return to 9750, will lessen if job growth, higher earnings, and capital spending.
· We’ll see financials again gaining, this time 194% for the quarter. But again, this has a false fact within it, as the value for quarterly earnings in the financial sector was 50 to 60 billion three years ago, will be 20.1 billion this year, and was 6.9 billion the first quarter of last year. We are seeing steady improvement.
· Earnings lead to business spending, which leads to hiring, which leads to consumer spending. The cycle may be returning. Typically 60% of companies beat estimates, so there’s a good chance, analysts think, that we’ll hit 35 to 36% earnings growth.
Thusly the fiber to this commentary shows bullish tendencies, and ones that are stronger than before, and with less euphoria.
The bubble was broken and many people will never return to what they knew, while others will have more than imagined, and more will have less. This is the state of things.
