So we find another 50 billion in Lehman stock fraud with Goldman, and Goldman playing the fake financial game with Greece, and the entire EU is affected.
The unraveling continues.
The GOP destroys all that is being attempted, and most of the U.S. doesn’t even know what is being discussed. Washington has become a card game.
90% of stocks are right now straining above their 50-day moving average.
Please, let me help. Keep perspective:
We are spiritual beings having a human experience. Learn to trade calmly, as an art, almost a way of Zen.
Falling in love with a stock is how we trade. We truly know very few stocks, and regularly update them on www.stockcharts.com for your review. We buy both value and breakout stocks, and split our holdings between core, speculative, and “rolls of dice” option and stock trades. Many of our traders use our services at Blue Chip for various types of information.
Telecommunications show the greatest actions while technology and oil and gas are the most out of favor sectors. It is never a bad time to buy more XOM (Exxon Mobil) and Chevron (CVX).
Gold could still hit 1160, but long term we are not as bullish for large increases, but merely stability. Traders may consider trimming or selling positions in GLD and CEF, but continue to hold AU. We will increase GLD and CEF again, never fear.
Crude may top out at 92.00, allowing more upside.
With the Aussie doing relatively well our investment in FAX should profit, as its based on Aussie, and Asian bonds.
With the upsurge the market has shown, and the number of days the market has been up, many analysts see April as a bullish month, with a sell off in May and June.
Upside target on the S &P of 1171.
Here are trends in ETF’s on moving sectors:
Nickel-26%
Biotech-19.66%
Homebuilding-19.12%
In today’s world these %’s will have changed within hours of the writing, and the analyst that shared “we just broke out to a new 18 month high” will be surprised by a 100 point sell off the following day.
It will soon be time to go long the Euro, and we believe the Euro will help the U.S. actually potentially show 3% growth in 2010, not because of our finances, but because of what we see happening with the Euro long term.
For all except the shortest-term players, the important question isn’t whether the market retrenches a bit, but whether this would like seguing into a definitive top.
I’ve said this before: in 1980 household debt was about 50% of GDP; by 2007 it has reached 100% of GDP. Prior to 1980 usury laws were set at 10%; former Fed chairman Volker altered usury laws, allowing interest rates to rise to levels not seen since the days of ancient Rome. Volker with this move did break the back of runaway inflation; however, at the same time the change in the usury laws set in motion the doubling of the debt.
Now couple this with Greenspan’s experiment of unique ways to finance real estate (to keep his bubble going), and finally the great unraveling of our financial pyramid scheme. If one asks the average American the “cause” of the recession over 76% answer “Housing”, when it was only a small part of the meltdown.
However equivocal the message from the FOMC, and for all Mr. Bernanke aims to please, he’s plainly antsy about the ultimate consequences of zero interest rates. It’s time to buy TIPS again, and it’s time to buy long term Treasuries, TLT.
We know TIP, we trade it regularly. Just add this back into your core portfolio, with no trailing stop, and continue to hold.
With TLT, we have not traded this often in this past year, so an update.
When we last sold TLT we netted 20% returns, and we were doing so as a stock.
In 2007 and 2008 we had an amazing run trading puts and calls on TLT as we watched the stock (falling in love with it). Buy TLT when it closes above 91.50
We’ll issue a buy on TLT, no trailing stop, to be held in the core portfolio and also list a call on TLT for the higher risk trader.
Buy both TLT (only other specific market conditions) and TIP and hold
Consider as a call option on TLT the following:
TLT100619C90
TLT JUN 2010 90.0000 CALL
Best buy: When TLT closes above 91.50
Do not trade until it hits this number. Hold for some time, and on any downturn with another 20% drop buys double in your position. Buying at 91.50 assures we are already in breakout
Hold for 80% to 100%, no stop loss
We believe everyone is wrong on the Chinese Yuan, and it will go much higher.
Washington’s emphasis on China’s currency may miss the bigger point of how dramatically the country is changing in other important ways.
IBM remains one of the absolute best buys in the market. Technology is an out of play sector, at a bottom, and IBM stands in a unique position. Continue to buy IBM on any consolidation.
