From the Road

As the market reached new highs this past week, with a nice healthy consolidation, we thought it time to update subscribers on all of our holdings.

Floyd will first admit that he is TERRIBLE at this. I have made a new promise to try to keep my spreadsheet of stocks bought, and current guidance. (Thanks subscriber Cheryl for nagging me and for Ron helping me calculate correctly.)

Our spreadsheet shows all of our current holdings, with our current profit/loss, and guidance as to buy/sell. You will note that we hold a total of 50 positions, and list buy price, current price as of 4/29 when we updated this, and guidance on each position.

Additionally, we have listed on our spreadsheet several positions we have recently recommended as new “long” buys. These positions were recommended in recent commentaries as a long -term buy.

Many of our subscribers buy the many options we recommend. We provide initial instructions for our option buys, but do not follow the signal after the recommendation.

Here are a few updates:

· Buy TLT Calls (June 2010 90.00 call) IF and when TLT reaches 91.50,but not before then. (Purchased on 4/20/10)

· RDY 2010 September 2010 22.50 call, buy at 2.70 to 4.40. Profitable to 6.10, and still holding.

· January 2011 Leap Call-Arch Coal (ACI)- profited to 40%

· January 2011 Leap Call-KRAFT-up 21%

· January 2011 Leap Call-AAPL-up 167%

· June McD Call-sold at 36% profits

· July GS Calls, two issues, profitable ITM to 20% 4/20/10, and 25% on OTM. One day increases

Commentary from the Road:

This to Floyd, a subscriber quitting:

“You don’t understand what the tea partiers are talking about. It is not just about free enterprise (we hardly talk about that) rather about less taxes, less government, no more “bailouts” upholding the U.S. Constitution and resurrecting the principles of out nations founders, people like Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Franklin, Adams and others; Remember them? I am an original tea partier and proud of it. A corrupt generation and people beget and condone corrupt leaders (including business leaders).”

Floyd Comment: It’s good they don’t talk about free enterprise much.

It’s good they want to go back to the founding Fathers; read the history on how Jefferson created the most corrupt banking system possible, and read how we created generations of slaves. Yep, great guys.

We live with myths that we create.

Next, we speak of immigration here and how we are manifesting various responses. There is real anger in the air.

We are all immigrants.

OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR: Why Arizona Drew a Line

The new law governing police action with suspected illegal aliens is humane and constitutional.

http://nyti.ms/9NG6C6

From The New York Times:

EDITORIAL: Stopping Arizona

President Obama needs to do more than mildly criticize Arizona’s new law that turns all of the state’s Latinos into criminal suspects. He should act.

http://nyti.ms/9nT2fZ

Cycle lows may complete on Monday, and hold to “trade range” to June.

The information we provide in this area of our Monday commentary may not provide “signals”, but provides directional bias and our recommendation/prediction. As some examples:

*Gold and Silver still show upside. Sell finals on all Gold and Silver no later than 11160 for Gold and Silver going under 18.00.

We see a correction coming in Gold and Silver, only to go to nice bottoms allowing us entry again by fall when we see precious metals starting to really move up.

So be careful of tops and close Gold and Silver except for a 5% hedge within a conservative portfolio.

*Natural gas is in whipsaw, unable to go short or long. It’s not a sector we want to be in.

*The Euro has held up well, and it’s something to watch. If it were to collapse on PIGS, or be restructured, the European economy will be vastly effected, as ours will.

Dear Owners of Ford 150’s that do not use it as a truck and all 4 wheel drive SUVS that live in southern states:

Did you notice that oil spill? At the tea party meetings what’s our solution?

Shame enough on Obama just giving in to offshore drilling. I would think now due diligence might be done. Polluting our own country with oil would be the ultimate end, and some smoker out on the ledge for the “smokers” area blows us up.

It’s a movie, and we’re making it.

And you who want oil, and drill baby drill…is the light on yet?

We have two new buys this week

•PNRA Panera Bread Inc should be studied and charted. They show growth, strenuous execution, and even held steady during recession.

Buy PNRA at up to market price on 5/3, or wait for any market drop near 10,800

* ORCL Oracle stands to win best with the growth in tech, with IBM, and we are adding to our core portfolio. Again buy at market, buy on dips and use a 25% trailing stop loss.

Both of these stocks have been added to our updated StockCharts.com charts,

and with the spreadsheet attached you are all current on our holdings.

We’ve had an extraordinary set of returns. Note that on market bottoms at 6700 to 7000 we doubled down on a number of positions, increasing our yield as the market turned. And, we also sold a great many “partials” of positions.

We think the market may be in for a bad surprise come fall….the euphoria has been too much. We will watch how bonds trade over the next few months (we bet up), and if GLD and SLV turn down, as we expect, thusly allowing a new buying opportunity before Gold truly does hit $2000.00 an oz.

Good trading. Take Prudent Risk.