Monday, October 12, 2009

When to Sell, and "Runner Stock to Buy"


Here's three simple rules for when to sell:

* Take some profit when a stock goes up to 20 – 25% from base, unless the stock rises 20% after your purchase within 8 weeks.

* Consider selling in 1/3's. This Floydian Thirds philosophy has you lock 1/3 of profits of 20%, 1/3 at a next defined upside, say 38%, and holding the final 1/3. The goal of Floydian thirds is to have gotten out your base investment with returns and let the final third "run".

*Set strict stop loss rules of "25% trailing stop loss".

And here's a "flyer" stock. Remember, these are stocks that I don't post to our portoflio, or track, but I think are worth review for stock traders. Valero Energy is on its way down, and it pays a 3.1% dividend.


The above chart is a traditional 3:1 ratio chart. Experiment a bit on sizing, and any buy near 17.50 is a strong low, using a stop loss at 15.50. And, a selling top at 23.00. This method of buying/selling is based on traditional Pnf techniques. Don't hesitate to ask questions.

This is a runner stock. You're on your own, using the above parameters. Good trading!

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Investing in "Real $"-New recommendation



Recent stats show Treasuries in "shift" mode, and it's time to explain some of our "Real $ Portfolio".

We invest 5 to 15% of our total portfolio in Gold and Silver, at all times. During the crash we were at 15%,and we are currently at 5 to 7%.
The remainder of our "cash" real $ portfolio (whatever your allocation is, mine being 50%) is always invested in a "laddering" of various treasury bills/bonds. "Laddering" means we dollar cost average,
buying at all times, and buying a variety of issues.

We currently own in our Real Money Portfolio:

TLT-Long term treasuries
TIPS-U.S. Treasury Inflation Bonds
GLD, SLV, SSRI-All are Gold or Silver ETF's
CEF-Canadian Exchange Fund-a cheaper way to own actual gold and silver bullion, unlike the ETF's above
EFR-Eaton Vance Senior Floating Rate Fund (this is a good alternative to TIPS)
ZTR-Zweig Total Return Fund: this is actually held in our CORE portfolios, this bond/treasury fund currently yields over 10%

"Laddering" means holding various incremental price points, buy ins, on Treasuries, and shifting positions. For example, I am going to recommend selling TLT and shifting assets to IEF, Barclays' 7 to 10 Year Bond fund, or at least shifting a portion of cash assets. I think shorter term IEF will outperform TLT for this period.

Buy: IEF Barclays' 7 to 10 year Treasury Bond ETF at market this week, and continue to buy on any market IEF dips.