First, please study:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-and-silver-may-start-to-buckle-under-pressure-2010-10-15
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayMiHOOvieuo&pos=5
From the chartists:
-- TRANSPORTATION ISHARES TEST SPRING HIGH
-- RAILS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN DRIVER OWING TO STRONG COMMODITY DEMAND
-- UNION PACIFIC HITS NEW RECORD
-- MOVE INTO TIPS SHOWS MORE INFLATION CONCERN
-- NEW SUPPORT LEVEL FOR GLD AND GDX
-- DOW NEARS CHALLENGE OF SPRING HIGH
Below are the 50 lessons of life that Floyd uses in trading, and in life. We believe this, and the control of emotions, is what leads a trader to success. Many of our long term and most successful traders have fought me tooth and nail on some of these statements, only to later come back saying….”yes, it’s how I learned to make money”.
You must have a basic lack of respect for authority. This is key. Authority creates facts, mostly false, that we as Americans are superb at falling for. It’s learning how to think “outside of the box” that makes trading the art of Zen.
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Weaving Straw BasketsFifty Steps to Understanding
1. A rock is not hard.
2. We only know what we know.
3. We do not know what we do not know.
4. There is no real such thing as “I”, but I AM.
5. There are people that do not read at all, and many people that do not
read well.
6. The majority always leads, and always forgets history.
7. Everything is really okay.
8. Everyone wants to dance, many in different ways, many so they are
never seen, many so they wish they could be seen, and many that are
always seen.
9. Negotiation is the art of understanding FEAR and GREED.
10. The mood of the public is first trended by stock markets, which show
levels of optimism, and supply and demand in the market place.
11. Most things are manipulated by the few at the top of the capitalist
pyramid that control the outcome, no matter what is done.
12. We only have what we remember.
13. In our reality our mission is really to give, love, flow and make and have
memories.
14. Our perspectives can change in a minute. Values and goals can shift as
fluid water. What we thought becomes not what we think.
15. Money must be understood. It is a “construed value” commodity, only
worth the value that we put on it.
16. All of life works on supply and demand, and cause and effect.
17. You are what you decide
18. If you surround yourself with people “better than yourself” in real life,
and as models, you become then and synergy can be created.
19. Everything happens for a reason.
20. Neither political party is really right or wrong; it is cause and effect in
action, because the actions of the 540 in Congress are no longer led by laws, but by corporations. This will affect the world.
21. We are always: approaching a crisis, within a crisis, or recuperating from a crisis. There is “always something”.
22. Many of us live in a circle of pain, in which we repeat the same negatively dramatic action with a group of others, all interacting within a black comedy drama. And able to be resolved.
23. Most of us do not know really know ourselves. When I ask clients to “tell me about themselves” they tell me about their jobs, their possessions, and lastly their families. They never mention themselves.
24. Most that appears obvious is not. Most that does not appear obvious is.
25. We are all in therapy at every moment. Most of us just don’t admit it, or
use it.
26. We are here to learn lessons and will struggle through until we learn
them. They may be very simple lessons.
27. In all steps of the life experience, and the dramas, people tend to put
love in the background, or it becomes part of the events.
28. Love is life.
29. If you repeat an action many times, it becomes a habit. If you continue,
“using the habit” it must be something that you value, or the habit will
become instead a self-destructive tendency.
30. Unrealistic expectations occur from being dishonest with you. If you
expect success at something you must earn it, and few that are lucky
last.
31. The question What Do I Want is the most important question you will
ask yourself in your life. Your answer defines your happiness. The question is not to tell yourself what possessions and monetary dreams you wish to come true, but to answer, “What do I want”.
32. There are simple ways to release unwanted stress.
33. There are ways to learn to relax and feel better physically.
34. There are ways to be happy.
35. Life is typically unfair and a series of negative events that are
overshadowed in our memory by the positive events.
36. Few people enjoy their work, making most of their life TV, sleeping, or
doing something they do not like. These people lose their strength and
general well being as time progresses.
37. We are fearful of our bodies. Of sex. This is true more in the U.S. than
most nations, and is something to be studied. But in the meantime,
have more sex.
38. The old funeral question has merit “What would they say for my
epitaph, and who would come?” It goes well with a general personal and introspective look that we must do and only you can do, and that is to look inside and ask what you contribute, and if you are good.
39. Things are not as they appear. What we see is not what is, but only what we know so far.
40. Much of what is smart repeats itself, and is never done.
41. All the religions really say the same thing, and sadly it will be religion
that could divide the world.
42. There is no such thing as an absolute.
43. There is no real black and white.
44. We self sabotage often so that we do not “get something we want” as we
want to punish ourselves for things we have done we feel guilty for.
45. It takes discipline to perform. Discipline is our way inside ourselves, as
we become rather than think.
46. People cannot take in more than 5 tasks/thoughts at one time.
Learning to control input is key to knowing when you are at or “over
your threshold”. We all have a threshold in which input overcomes us.
47. More could be done in business, and in politics, if simple playground
rules “no cheating” were put in place before any “deal” and a. Cheaters had to pay by doing public service, but that is just a
dream. b. I want Tom Delay mowing that White House lawn.
48. Life is too short to do business with assholes.
49. Use your time. Have your goals around your values, but be armed to
stop believing even what you believe.
50. Be open to the world. Trust no facts. Question authority.
Floydian Thoughts:
*Gold has a support line at 1350. Watch your long position only if Gold drops to this level, or take partial profits.
*Silver we are also long with 50% plus increases, and watch our long position at closes below support lines at 22.00
*Our option on PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp) expired Friday with a total return of 150%. For those that held the position until expiry a lot of money was to made.
* Oil remains strong, and we would watch for support line closes below 82.20.
It’s likely oil will remain up until November.
Charles Nenner Research:
This great stock picker sees the following as changes in the market:
1. S&P close below 1182
2. Dow a close below 10,950 might lead the market to the Fib retracement at 10,746 or a bit lower.
3. The Nasdaq closing below 2044, and we see the Nasdaq as the first to go down, and rotate into the OEX and S&P 500.
Dow Projections
Here are our Dow projections for the next 14-day period:
10,416-Deepest Support Line, unlikely
10,550-10,676-Strong Support, likely lowest low
10, 746-10,787- Fibonacci retracement. This is a key support and resistance area where the market has pivoted from for several weeks.
We now see this as our potential deepest low
Pay attention to a hesitancy area at the Fib retracement above up to 10,846
10,900-10,950 Resistance testing line
10,127-New Resistance Line
11, 250-Resistance
Last week the Dow hit theoretical tops at 11, 190 several times
11,367-Strong Resistance
Most of last week the market hovered. We dropped on the theoretical Dow several times below 11,000, but would always end the day to the upswing.
The market is vastly overbought, and the discussions between the floor traders are if the UP will hold, or IF the down will go down further than people expect.
We know:
1. Our January 2013 Goldman Sachs call returned as much as 20% within a week. Some traders sold for profits, and will re-buy and others continue to hold.
2. Our January 2103 Proctor and Gamble call is already up 10%.
Many traders ask on LEAPS like these two core questions:
1. Why would you buy so far out?
2. If the position becomes profitable early should I sell early.
Here’s the answers:
We often buy one and two year out LEAPS on stocks we believe have a strong upside potential, and we buy to hold until expiry.
At the same time if we see strong 20 to 25% returns on the position within a two week period after buying we often sell out, and re-buy the same position anytime the market lowers, and continue to do so over and over again.
Last year, as an example, we traded a one-year LEAP on McDonalds 8 times profitably, and sold at expiry for a 61% return. Coupling all of our positive returns together we traded the position 9 times and made over 300%.
The key here is what we teach all the time: Learn the option. Fall in love with a specific option so that you can follow the stock (or the index) and know what public reaction will be on the option itself.
So, what’s to trade?
Nothing right now. If you hold good profits on many of our open positions, as you should, take partial profits if conservative, as the market has more opportunity for downside than upside, although we believe the upside momentum may continue with only a short correction.
Despite all the money the GOP is spending on lies and deception if you study what has been accomplished in two years, considering the state of our economy and what has been building for 15 years, we do not have a socialistic President, but instead one dealing with a corrupt Congress.
The Pee Party, funded by Karl Rove, is right in “wanting change” and “wanting to oust the corruption”. This is the same fodder that Obama wanted in “change” and it’s much more difficult than it appears.
Just imagine Christine O’Donnell in the Senate. Imagine the naïve and blind sitting in Congress with the corrupt and slimed. Nothing will change.
Instead, fight for change within the channels we have. Stop the GOP from holding every vote back, and have the facts when one talks about the massive debt.
America is awaiting the flow of Fed dollars, as is the world, and its’ why the dollar has so devalued (Bernanke’s plan) and more debt will be created.
We’re active in TIPS (Treasury Inflation Bonds) and have a strong, strong portfolio with good stocks, that all pay dividends. This way you gain even if the stock is short term losing, and you gain by higher dividends than the CD market will pay.
Watch our daily BCO alerts this week. We will be trading, but only when we see firm market bias, or a stock that is ignoring market protocol.
Be Well, Listen Intelligently; Question all Facts, and Show Compassion.
Floyd at OEX
