Here's what we see, using the Dow and the S&P:
1. Downside is clear if and when the S&P closed below 1086, the Nasdaq below 1850, and the Dow at 10,147
2. We see the deepest downside 10,127-10,250 unless massive world news triggers events, but even then believe the market will hold near 10,000
3. We see first tops at 10,746, and the possibility of the market summer rallying to potentially even above 11,000. If this occurs we will begin selling most we own in Blue Chip Options.
4. It is more likely for a larger correction if the market euphorically rises again to the 11,000 area.
Silver remains a long-term play, but watch carefully if it closes below 18.20
And note again, if Pan American Silver closes above 24.60 it’s a buy, and not before.
We want to see a solid return to upside for PAAS.
Short term we may see a top in silver, just as we are seeing gold hold at 1200.
Both are temporary but Gold may have more downside, while silver shows more upside.
Our best investment is AU (Anglo Ashanti), which, if one holds a large block of stock (20k or more) can return up to 1600.00 every few weeks as the stock vacillates 10% up and 10% down. I personally have sold 400 shares in/out and profited 4 times on this in the past 6 weeks as the Gold market was topping.
We will hold this one, and be in and out of Silver, and have our eyes on PAAS.
Remember, at Blue Chip Floyd will almost always “sell us out of position 10 to 15% from the market top”. We’d rather leave the and higher risk to others.
I see the market in a trade range and a time to take profits on upside, sell options on “fair profits”, and watch the mood carefully. Doomsayers see the great correction, in which FAX and FAS (study these ETF’s) will become good methods of high-risk returns, but they remain high-risk methods to shorting the market.
Option Report:
(Email anytime if you need the signals themselves as we do not keep up with options on our website)
*Google-hit 37% returns first week
*Mosaic-hit 37 to 41% in 14 days
(Both could still be held in partials, but 1/3 of the profits should have been taken)
*Amazon-down 21%. Hold
*Apple-two buys have been made on this option or it was stop lossed. If two buys have been made, we’re down 18%. We’ll hold for now and watch carefully.
Oil remains confused to us. If it holds below $79.00 at any time it may have topped, but we still consider our oil stocks huge value buys, and have seen ExxonMobil, our largest holding, come “up “ to only 5% down.
I see spending in the economy, and the top 50 global companies just rolling in the dough, and companies learning that downsizing merely removed the bloat, and we are now responsible for creating NEW jobs.
In my own small firms that I own I have found in cutting staff, as I’ve had, that people suddenly work harder. And, that I probably had been employing too many.
We hear that Americans want to work. Are willing to work. I believe this is true.
And I also believe that the majority of our labor force are overweight, and do not have a high work ethic.
I recently gave a seminar to 18 small business owners (500,000 a year to 5 million) and I saw work ethic in each owner, and their comments that as they downsized they have learned more about did not get done.
This is not Obama’s lack of jobs. This is America’s last of forethought.
As our importing increased, as did our exporting, more jobs moved overseas not because of laws, or “dollar raiding to enter”. Normal free enterprise occurred and the cycle of life continued. Our economy is now the U.S. and U.S. made may be harder to achieve. We must create immediate jobs, sure, but bigger picture…
The jobs during Bushy time were primarily and so ironic, in the oil, banking and real estate construction boom (blame going right back to Bubbles Greenspan)
I believe we must have a deficit, and we must pay for our mistakes. I also believe that Keynesian economics will hold true here where the world debt of paper becomes valueless, and the commodity that is valued (gold, to beads) will have allowed us to “pay off” our mistakes.
Millions of lives have been affected by the change of cause and effect, supply and demand, and the “paper value” collapsed.
At one time Geitner and Paulson saw the screens and could figure that more money was being bet on derivates than there was in the world.
I’m watching on two new stock options, and just waiting out in the market and I’ll report in.
Be Well and Do Good
