Just a few thoughts today, to help you think.
Vaccines give us a false sense of security. When you have a strategy that everyone thinks reduces death by 50%, it’s pretty hard to invest resources to come up with better remedies.
This is your "think" question of the day.
_________________
And some ramblings.
The recent surge in oil prices hasn’t benefited Big Oil much, and the moment may be passing. Last week we had earnings from BP, Conoco Phillips, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron.
It’s hard to compare the gang rape that was occurring a year ago and more in oil speculation, and the recent run up to oil at 81.00.
The refinery business is at 81% of capacity and our U.S. Oil Supply is up 28% over last year. We see oil as ready for a major correction, perhaps to $50.00. We are these prices right now because of supply and demand, entirely to excess global liquidity.
As long as profit remains the driving force, health care will remain a commodity, instead of a human right.
The political focus on the federal stimulus package and Bernanke’s own professional mildness have deflected attention from how radically the Fed Chief has acted. He dropped target interest rates to near zero for the first time in history; made trillions of dollars in government cash available to financial institutions; expanded the Fed’s lending and relaxed its collateral requirements; bought up billions of dollars in securities backed by consumer debt, and mortgages; protected the collapse of AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; and somehow found time to bear the made for TV harangues of the financially illiterate members of Congress. The particulars of the Fed’s intervention remain lamentably shielded from oversight. But in the Great Recession, Bernanke’s approach may have spared the world a true nightmare *Every stock leader pulls back to the 50 day moving average 2, 3 or 4 times before the move is over.
*Study only 50 stocks. Own no more than 10. Know what you own.
__________________________________________
Lots of big money portfolio managers believe the money in 2010 will be in Microsoft, GE (which we just recommended to all traders that held to sell) and Bank of America, and not in Apple, Google, and AIG.
They may be right.
The great risk has really already been taken as investors flocked back in at 6500 and watched this meteoric rise, on no real results. In other words, their appetites opened to risk, only to last week begin to hesitate that this entire expansion has been built on inflated GDP numbers, restructuring, and falsified earnings growth. The game will get harder as the "good months" progress.
