Friday, November 20, 2009

ExxonMobil Buy Signal


Barrons last week had a cover that said "4 Reasons to Buy ExxonMobil". Simply put, Barrons saw it as "best management, best reserves, best balance sheet and best returns, and the best long term bet".

Exxon is one of our Shifty Fifty simply because of these traits, and we've made great money on the issue in options this last year. We also think it's a great long term CORE investment now, and will be more so on any consolidation, and recommend XOM ExxonMobil at current prices and below:


Buy to 74.00. Use a stop loss of 64.00 on a pnf chart, or use that as a time for a larger second buy.

“The idea that there is a competitive “private sector’ in American is appealing, but generally false. No one hates competition more than the managers of corporations.

Competition does not enhance shareholder value, and smart managers all know they must work at ways at “controlling” government intervention.

This is is not new. This is not Obamaland. When Congress created the first regulatory ageny, the Interstate Commerce Commission, in 1887 the railroad barons quickly recognized they were to be subdued, but could benefit. “The older a commission gets to be the more inclined it will be take the business and the railroad and business point of view. It thus becomes a sort of barrier between the railroad corporations and the people and a sort of protection against hasty and crude legislation hostile to railroad actions.”

All the above from Richard Olney, a railroad lawyer during that time period that lived his thinking, as soon after this quote he got himself appointed to run the U.S. Justice Dep, where he spent his days busting railroad unions.

Trader Tips:

*Trend Lines should connect at least three lows and occur over several months.

*The Price Expansion Rule: Model stocks experience an average P/E expansion from the first stage pivot point to typical peaks of 130% rises.