The VIX is at its lowest level since last September, and Bollinger Bands ( a measure of volatility for VIX) are also as narrow as they were before last September. We all know that VIX rallies as people grow more fearful, and declines as greed sets in and complacency is in "action". What this means now: traders are less fearful of an overall stock decline.
True chartists know that as Bollingers tighten it is typically in advance of a large scale move, one way or the other. It could easily be higher.
As a contrarian, cynic, provocateur, and general questioner of facts I see simply that we hit lows in March, and are having a bear market rally from these extremely oversold conditions.
Back in March the money was being made "shorting" and it's all the talking heads could even say, and now the money is being made by "jumping onto the wagon" and not missing out on the rally that will never stop.
As I write this on 8/11 the market has dropped 81 points. Typically by the end of the FOMC meeting, today at 2.15 p.m., the market will have rallied again on "no increase in interest rates" and that the FEDS did not tell us the world was ending. We'll see.
SRS, which you'll read about above, is off for us by 38%, and has a long way to reverse. But it can.
