Friday, August 7, 2009

It's time to buy some SIN




It is sad to me to recommend a sin stock. Certainly not because I am a conservative, or opposed to sin J, but because I know what sin products can do.

But here I am recommending Phillip Morris (PM), sadly, for what they help us hedge against.

The above chart I created at 2 p.m. during the market tops occurring on Friday.

Actually, PM is a way to play against the declining value of the USD.

Facts:

1. The company books nearly 100% of its sales in international markets

2. PM owns 16% non U.S. market share, seven of the top 15 international brands, and margins over 40%.

3. They have no shame and target the youth in developing countries with a vast variety of addictive products.

This trades at 13 times earnings, and has raised prices even as taxes raise.

Smoking in emerging markets is a natural, and PM even buys their emerging market competitors up.

And of course it bribes us to keep the stock (this is called a dividend) with a 4.6% current yield.

It’s time for SIN.

Buy PM at market, and continue to buy on any dips. Set a 25% trailing stop loss. Buy this in our speculative portfolio.

We do not recommend options on this stock.