Here's what we see, using the Dow and the S&P:
1. Downside is clear if and when the S&P closed below 1086, the Nasdaq below 1850, and the Dow at 10,147
2. We see the deepest downside 10,127-10,250 unless massive world news triggers events, but even then believe the market will hold near 10,000
3. We see first tops at 10,746, and the possibility of the market summer rallying to potentially even above 11,000. If this occurs we will begin selling most we own in Blue Chip Options.
4. It is more likely for a larger correction if the market euphorically rises again to the 11,000 area.
Silver remains a long-term play, but watch carefully if it closes below 18.20
And note again, if Pan American Silver closes above 24.60 it’s a buy, and not before.
We want to see a solid return to upside for PAAS.
Short term we may see a top in silver, just as we are seeing gold hold at 1200.
Both are temporary but Gold may have more downside, while silver shows more upside.
Our best investment is AU (Anglo Ashanti), which, if one holds a large block of stock (20k or more) can return up to 1600.00 every few weeks as the stock vacillates 10% up and 10% down. I personally have sold 400 shares in/out and profited 4 times on this in the past 6 weeks as the Gold market was topping.
We will hold this one, and be in and out of Silver, and have our eyes on PAAS.
Remember, at Blue Chip Floyd will almost always “sell us out of position 10 to 15% from the market top”. We’d rather leave the and higher risk to others.
I see the market in a trade range and a time to take profits on upside, sell options on “fair profits”, and watch the mood carefully. Doomsayers see the great correction, in which FAX and FAS (study these ETF’s) will become good methods of high-risk returns, but they remain high-risk methods to shorting the market.
Option Report:
(Email anytime if you need the signals themselves as we do not keep up with options on our website)
*Google-hit 37% returns first week
*Mosaic-hit 37 to 41% in 14 days
(Both could still be held in partials, but 1/3 of the profits should have been taken)
*Amazon-down 21%. Hold
*Apple-two buys have been made on this option or it was stop lossed. If two buys have been made, we’re down 18%. We’ll hold for now and watch carefully.
Oil remains confused to us. If it holds below $79.00 at any time it may have topped, but we still consider our oil stocks huge value buys, and have seen ExxonMobil, our largest holding, come “up “ to only 5% down.
I see spending in the economy, and the top 50 global companies just rolling in the dough, and companies learning that downsizing merely removed the bloat, and we are now responsible for creating NEW jobs.
In my own small firms that I own I have found in cutting staff, as I’ve had, that people suddenly work harder. And, that I probably had been employing too many.
We hear that Americans want to work. Are willing to work. I believe this is true.
And I also believe that the majority of our labor force are overweight, and do not have a high work ethic.
I recently gave a seminar to 18 small business owners (500,000 a year to 5 million) and I saw work ethic in each owner, and their comments that as they downsized they have learned more about did not get done.
This is not Obama’s lack of jobs. This is America’s last of forethought.
As our importing increased, as did our exporting, more jobs moved overseas not because of laws, or “dollar raiding to enter”. Normal free enterprise occurred and the cycle of life continued. Our economy is now the U.S. and U.S. made may be harder to achieve. We must create immediate jobs, sure, but bigger picture…
The jobs during Bushy time were primarily and so ironic, in the oil, banking and real estate construction boom (blame going right back to Bubbles Greenspan)
I believe we must have a deficit, and we must pay for our mistakes. I also believe that Keynesian economics will hold true here where the world debt of paper becomes valueless, and the commodity that is valued (gold, to beads) will have allowed us to “pay off” our mistakes.
Millions of lives have been affected by the change of cause and effect, supply and demand, and the “paper value” collapsed.
At one time Geitner and Paulson saw the screens and could figure that more money was being bet on derivates than there was in the world.
I’m watching on two new stock options, and just waiting out in the market and I’ll report in.
Be Well and Do Good
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Thursday, August 5, 2010
No Free Lunch
I received the following email “advertisement” this past week after Bernanke spoke:
“Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Drops the HAMMER!
*** "This is the worst labor market since the Great Depression." *** *** "The market remains weak, with the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses ... *** *** "...uncertainty about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal....." *** My Friends, This Market is Fragile and can CRASH ANY DAY
NOW. This is a DIRECT WARNING from the FED CHAIRMAN. It can not be more clear! I warned about this LAST WEEK! I'll Tell you "What To Do
Right Now to PROFIT BIG. Options that can skyrocket 300% 400% even 700%
800% or more.
This time around Cash In on the Turbulence, Cash in on the Crash with a small cash outlay.”
As I read the above jibber jabber I thought this might be what the Pee Party reads and believes and I simply am awestruck that a company would attempt to advertise so deceitfully, ready to let people lose thousands of dollars “dreaming of the 800% return.
Instead, Iʼm jumping up and down on our play with Mosaic Calls that are up 49% from purchase in a 5 day period. MOS SEP 18 2010 45.00 CALL we just recommended, and itʼs up 33% as of Friday, and hit 49% highs the day prior. We consider returns like this EXTRAORDINARY, meaning truly out of the ordinary, and not to normally be expected in most trading.
Reality. There Is no such thing as a free lunch. As Malcolm Gladwell teaches us one becomes an expert at something with 100,000 hours of work at it.
We did this a few months ago with our TLT call that hit 60% returns, albeit a long call that we had bought, and most traders sold out. Some may still hold, and the option is in the red. There come the nerves of steel, as there are another 6 months in this option.
And we hope to do it now while we think the market will rise short term, and we will begin liquidating some more of our holdings, locking profits, as the longer term view of the market is that it will end.
The debt the world has built up over the last 30 to 40 years is essentially “being liquidated”; the house of cards coming down.
Keynesian economists will steer us that the ongoing debt will essentially recycle and by itself creates no danger, as long as growth continues.
Others see it as the debt of the world eventually collapsing, not overnight, but over a tell telling time of high unemployment, homes being rented more than bought, and people working into their late 70ʼs. All of that time the dollar will be collapsing, but actually the dollar will be increasing.
The value of companies, the way we trade to create market share, this many think will end in just a few short years, and that there will be no stock market as we know it, no trading as we have it, and values having been changed. A perfect example of a “rock is not hard”.
As we trade options, we trade for fast profits. As we have traded stocks weʼve often bought on dips, but will not be doing so now, but instead selling for profits at various market tops, ALWAYS leaving money on the table for someone else to make. Rockefeller made his money by selling just before the top, and my Dad taught me well to always have a regret that I could have gotten more, because with the gains I got I could watch as the market or stock went “just a bit higher”, leading to GREED.
It confuses all of us. For example, Floyd here got us out of the Gold and Silver market when gold hit 1170-1180 ranges, and we missed the trade range increases to 1280. But as Gold has fallen we bought back in, and Iʼm not sure I should have recommended Gold. From a contrarian perspective I see tops no higher than 1270, and soon leading to lower lows For the short term. Gold may NOT be the frenzy.
Silver, however, should be, and to most is not even noticed. We own SLV and CEF which holds silver billion.
Here are recommendations to our portfolio:
Decrease or do not buy more of GLD.
Increase your position in SLV, the counter index for Silver to Gold. In Blue Chips we own Silver, in three ways: a.through Canadian Exchange Fund, (CEF), that holds both gold and silver bullion b. through SLV or SSRI, both excellent Elfʼs c. through shares of the Pan American Silver Fund (PAAS)
This play is a stock, and making trading news:
“Shares of Pan American Silver Corp. edged up $0.33 (+1.44%) to $23.25. The stock closed at $22.92 in the previous trading session and opened today at $23.18. The price of the stock ranged between a low of $23.04 and $23.67 respectively. The trading volume of 702,941 is below the 90 day average volume of 1,193,300 shares. PAAS is trading below the 50 day moving average. The stock's 52 week low is $18.11 and 52 week high is $28.41.”
Letʼs watch PAAS. As it shows upward trend near $25.00 this is an excellent buy as a stock or a long term call option.
Now to clear your mind of the sadness of our world, the news bites of false facts, here are some REAL ones to help us understand our transition as a human race.
*BP contributed 77,051 to Barack Obama through 2004-2009.
*The average American paid 17% of their personal income in taxes last year, the lowest since 1971.
*There were 116,782 immigrants deported during Emperor Bush’s first year in office; Obama the communist has only deported 387,790 immigrants.
*Five finance firms hold 97% of the cash derivatives on the market.
*49 states have laws making certain physical appearances legal to have companies not hire the individual. It is said that Pee Party members are scrambling to find this in the Constitution.
*17% of all Catholics believe in the “evil eye”
*There are 23 nuclear reactors being built in China
*IN 2009 52% of U.S. personal income came from wages, and 17% came from horrifying socialistic government programs. Since 1929 these figures have never been so low and high. So, I’m asking all Pee Party folks holding their Constitution in hand, pray to their God (Christian only, I think, allowed in Pee Party, as in constitution, and voluntarily offer to give up their federal programs to “do the right thing”. Simply denounce your public library, public schools, social security, Medicare, and all else that we have wrought.
Be Well and Do Good
Trade for the right reasons
Floyd
“Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Drops the HAMMER!
*** "This is the worst labor market since the Great Depression." *** *** "The market remains weak, with the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses ... *** *** "...uncertainty about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal....." *** My Friends, This Market is Fragile and can CRASH ANY DAY
NOW. This is a DIRECT WARNING from the FED CHAIRMAN. It can not be more clear! I warned about this LAST WEEK! I'll Tell you "What To Do
Right Now to PROFIT BIG. Options that can skyrocket 300% 400% even 700%
800% or more.
This time around Cash In on the Turbulence, Cash in on the Crash with a small cash outlay.”
As I read the above jibber jabber I thought this might be what the Pee Party reads and believes and I simply am awestruck that a company would attempt to advertise so deceitfully, ready to let people lose thousands of dollars “dreaming of the 800% return.
Instead, Iʼm jumping up and down on our play with Mosaic Calls that are up 49% from purchase in a 5 day period. MOS SEP 18 2010 45.00 CALL we just recommended, and itʼs up 33% as of Friday, and hit 49% highs the day prior. We consider returns like this EXTRAORDINARY, meaning truly out of the ordinary, and not to normally be expected in most trading.
Reality. There Is no such thing as a free lunch. As Malcolm Gladwell teaches us one becomes an expert at something with 100,000 hours of work at it.
We did this a few months ago with our TLT call that hit 60% returns, albeit a long call that we had bought, and most traders sold out. Some may still hold, and the option is in the red. There come the nerves of steel, as there are another 6 months in this option.
And we hope to do it now while we think the market will rise short term, and we will begin liquidating some more of our holdings, locking profits, as the longer term view of the market is that it will end.
The debt the world has built up over the last 30 to 40 years is essentially “being liquidated”; the house of cards coming down.
Keynesian economists will steer us that the ongoing debt will essentially recycle and by itself creates no danger, as long as growth continues.
Others see it as the debt of the world eventually collapsing, not overnight, but over a tell telling time of high unemployment, homes being rented more than bought, and people working into their late 70ʼs. All of that time the dollar will be collapsing, but actually the dollar will be increasing.
The value of companies, the way we trade to create market share, this many think will end in just a few short years, and that there will be no stock market as we know it, no trading as we have it, and values having been changed. A perfect example of a “rock is not hard”.
As we trade options, we trade for fast profits. As we have traded stocks weʼve often bought on dips, but will not be doing so now, but instead selling for profits at various market tops, ALWAYS leaving money on the table for someone else to make. Rockefeller made his money by selling just before the top, and my Dad taught me well to always have a regret that I could have gotten more, because with the gains I got I could watch as the market or stock went “just a bit higher”, leading to GREED.
It confuses all of us. For example, Floyd here got us out of the Gold and Silver market when gold hit 1170-1180 ranges, and we missed the trade range increases to 1280. But as Gold has fallen we bought back in, and Iʼm not sure I should have recommended Gold. From a contrarian perspective I see tops no higher than 1270, and soon leading to lower lows For the short term. Gold may NOT be the frenzy.
Silver, however, should be, and to most is not even noticed. We own SLV and CEF which holds silver billion.
Here are recommendations to our portfolio:
Decrease or do not buy more of GLD.
Increase your position in SLV, the counter index for Silver to Gold. In Blue Chips we own Silver, in three ways: a.through Canadian Exchange Fund, (CEF), that holds both gold and silver bullion b. through SLV or SSRI, both excellent Elfʼs c. through shares of the Pan American Silver Fund (PAAS)
This play is a stock, and making trading news:
“Shares of Pan American Silver Corp. edged up $0.33 (+1.44%) to $23.25. The stock closed at $22.92 in the previous trading session and opened today at $23.18. The price of the stock ranged between a low of $23.04 and $23.67 respectively. The trading volume of 702,941 is below the 90 day average volume of 1,193,300 shares. PAAS is trading below the 50 day moving average. The stock's 52 week low is $18.11 and 52 week high is $28.41.”
Letʼs watch PAAS. As it shows upward trend near $25.00 this is an excellent buy as a stock or a long term call option.
Now to clear your mind of the sadness of our world, the news bites of false facts, here are some REAL ones to help us understand our transition as a human race.
*BP contributed 77,051 to Barack Obama through 2004-2009.
*The average American paid 17% of their personal income in taxes last year, the lowest since 1971.
*There were 116,782 immigrants deported during Emperor Bush’s first year in office; Obama the communist has only deported 387,790 immigrants.
*Five finance firms hold 97% of the cash derivatives on the market.
*49 states have laws making certain physical appearances legal to have companies not hire the individual. It is said that Pee Party members are scrambling to find this in the Constitution.
*17% of all Catholics believe in the “evil eye”
*There are 23 nuclear reactors being built in China
*IN 2009 52% of U.S. personal income came from wages, and 17% came from horrifying socialistic government programs. Since 1929 these figures have never been so low and high. So, I’m asking all Pee Party folks holding their Constitution in hand, pray to their God (Christian only, I think, allowed in Pee Party, as in constitution, and voluntarily offer to give up their federal programs to “do the right thing”. Simply denounce your public library, public schools, social security, Medicare, and all else that we have wrought.
Be Well and Do Good
Trade for the right reasons
Floyd
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