In our ongoing portfolio commentary, beginning with last Monday’s alert, we’ll first finish up on the holdings, charts and spreadsheets all updated on the website.
Principal Financial Group (PFG)
We think one of the best run of the insurance giants, a quiet giant.
Buy. 25% trailing stop loss.
MTN Group Ltd (MTNOY)
For fun feel free to do your own due diligence on this newly recommended international telecommunications trade.
Buy, using a 25% trailing stop loss
Oracle (ORCL)
This is a long-term speculative trade; we think is the best positioned in the tech field,
as the sector shifts . Long term we believe we have the right stock.
Buy. 25% trailing stop loss
Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)
As soon as we bought in all the news was announced on bad product, packaging, and the brand name of all time became tarnished. We saw the initial recommendation decline 11%, and as we had said “buy, buy, buy”, we bought again at lows and will continue to. A strong dividend and brand name that will overcome this quickly, and bounce back.
Long term speculative hold, using a 25% trailing stop loss.
Panera Bread (PNRA)
When we sold slimy YUM Brands recently for 60% plus profits, and knowing we already held the slime of slime, McDonalds, Panera Bread charts as a break out stock, and is a superbly run restaurant chain.
Buy as a speculative position, using a 25% trailing stop loss
National Fuel Group (NFG)
This is also a new long-term speculative purchase. It’s another method of distribution of core commodities, and worth your review.
Buy. Accumulate. 25% trailing stop loss, in a speculative portfolio.
Monsanto (MON)
The next sector growth play we think is in “soft commodities”, which in the agricultural world means chemicals, pesticides, potash, and shit.
Monsanto has hit a real bottom, with its patent rights gone on its moneymaker pesticide this year, but sells many things, and performs many services.
We bought MON and have continued to recommend within decline, and are now about 3% off .
Accumulate. 25% trailing stop loss
Our recent recommendation on a call on Mosaic MOS SEP 18 2010 45.00 CALL
were spot on. Investors required the second larger buy on this position but hit 34% profits over a week ago.
As we recommend options, remember-SELL at your risk level. For some a 34% return is superb, and for others, they will hold closer to expiry and follow the charts.
The only other sector not covered in our portfolio takes a unique conversation.
We have owned, and do own TIP, the government inflation bond, and we have played TLT calls regularly reaping 35% returns in days with no losses.
Both TLT and TIP remain sound investments long term, to just hold and buy, and short term, to trade on the momentum as these currencies shift with and against the EURO and GLD and SLV
We remain active in review of AIG and TOY. We would like to buy QABA below $20.00My comments will be in bold black, and are to lead you to more questions and answers.
The first step in trading is the identification of personality type, your core “character logy”.
The next step is to let your subconscious just open a bit to your conscious, by taking honesty in, and not “I want or “make up” stories to yourself about whom you are.
From Charles Nenner Research, the Netherlands stock prophet that used to analyze for Goldman . He spoke on CNBC last Wednesday.
*************************************************************************************************
“The Blue cycle line that signaled the prior highs and lows is topping again
This is the reason that we exited long positions when the S&P reached 1200
The very long Red cycle that bottomed in 1990 is now turning down
It bottoms only around the year 2025
This is the reason that we expect a continuation of the overall bear market for many years, with several up moves along the way”
We must recognize that Nenner uses algorithms and cycles to foresee the market and is probably best predicting what we already know. We’re phucked.
Here's what the stock chartists tell us about the massive drop:
-- STOCKS MOVE SHARPLY LOWER TO AFFIRM RESISTANCE ZONES
-- BREADTH INDICATORS REMAIN BEARISH OVERALL
-- RISING EURO WEIGHS ON GOLD
-- GOLD BREAKS WEDGE SUPPORT
-- VOLATILITY INDICES TEST IMPORTANT SUPPORT ZONES
-- ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT SHOWS THE S&P 500 IN WAVE 4
AN ALTERNATIVE ABC CORRECTION AND SUMMER RALLY
At Blue Chip Options we are not considering 25 year periods, but do recognize and believe there will be far fewer “stocks” to invest in that “win”, and that the market will take years to sort itself out of what it did, and what those behind it continue to do.
At Blue Chip Options I've been recommending watching Gold and Silver for months, and we sold our position at 1170. We've just re-entered with Gold and Silver and will watch this. We may have entered too early and that we have more downside to surprise us.
We believe we will have an alternative ABC correction and a summer rally. Our bullishness is short term, but truly there. We see more upside before downside short-term, and more downside than upside long term (6 months).
Friday was indeed a feeding frenzy of downside, lightened by Apple hitting the stages at 1 pm. and telling the world that only 165,000 have complained out of 3 million sold, that all smart phones do this, and that we have created frenzy.
People want Apple to fail, because Apple is successful. People always want to find fault with success.
I own this product and watched with amazement at what a feeding frenzy it has become, when almost every Smartphone has the same problem, and suddenly this is “news”. Lobbyists played Apple, or the human psyche did…..upset that a company could seemingly do “no wrong”.
We’re bullish on Apple and own AAPL OCT 16 2010 290.00 CALL.
We are also bullish on the right Blue Chips, which are bargain priced.
Accumulate IBM, ORACLE, MON, MOS, and any blue chip that is bargain priced.
We will close our weekly commentary with two new recommendations.
1. -BP101016C36
BP OCT 16 2010 36.00 CALL
Buy at up to market. Best buy at 4.85 or less.
Hold and accumulate on any large market dips.
Use a stop loss of $31.00 and sell to 49.00
This is only for high-risk traders
2. Buy Google. (GOOG) Complete our vision. We own ORCL, AAPL, AMZN (both in calls) and think that Google has not lost a bit of its focus, just a bit of attention has softened its profile.
Barron’s this week surprised me with this being their primary recommendation. They are in good company with old Floyd, who recommends it as a core holding using a 25% trailing stop loss.
Buy at market and accumulate.
We will watch for a call on GOOG in the near future.
Here’s partly why. Viral marketing is our future, and GOOG will lead in the producer of the product, AAPL in the display, and ORCL in being ORCL
Here’s the first genius viral marketing:
http://blog.entrepreneur.com/2010/07/lessons-from-the-old-spice-man.ph
Do no harm. Question authority. Question all facts. Do not trust people that want to force their beliefs on you. Be Well.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Floyd, the Trader
The most important piece of the jigsaw of a rising economy is not bullshit like "buy less from China", or "the government caused this and now we're becoming socialists".
Idiots think this. (Sorry if you are one). But, it’s time to get REAL, as we watch stock market take away any profits, give them back, and resolutions being “stuck and lobbied”
A large part of the jigsaw is that consumers owe $14 trillion. This is all Obama's fault, like everything else. He and those Democrats (not a single Republican) are not focusing on JOBS that will allow people to spend.
Here's the facts:
1. There is $14 TRILLION in household debt, and $10.5 TRILLION of that mortgage related, thanks to Bubbles Greenspan.
2. Americans have now decided being upside down that is okay to PHUCK your bank. We predict more and more will just walk away from their mortgages as their homes lose more value.
Reduced spending may occur with this, as will rising delinquencies on credit cards and mortgage accounts.
3. A Floydian Fact of real merit: There is an astonishing decline in bank deposits, clear evidence we as a public are starting to burn through the cash.
4. Stephanie Pomboy, Market Maven, says there is almost a zero chance of our ratio of debt returning to 65%, what it was before Bubbles Greenspan came to head the FEDS, and we all believed him GOD, because the money was free. She analyzes that to decline our debt by 6.3 trillion, or increase income by 9 trillion would bring us to this 65% reasonable and healthy rate, would take up to 10 years to occur, and has a ZERO chance of occurring because 40% of our households now spend every dollar they make just to keep their heads above water.
Last week we updated our portfolio on the website and made a number of recommendations for sales of positions. We are continuing to do so, and to do our mid-year “MRI” of our holdings. It’s been an exceptional year and a half for Blue Chip Options.
We’ll begin in the Monday commentary with our analysis of our holdings, and continue through the week, so that all of our holdings are covered by weekend.
Please Make Note: People invest for different reasons, and at different times in their lives. Planners call this allocation. Traders call it sector changing. Money magazines explain to the average Joe investor that it is good to have holdings in a variety of positions, and of course, never to have all your money in your company stock, as they are likely going to phuck you.
We pick both stocks that we buy and hold (and buy more on downturns) that ALL pay dividends. These are our CORE positions.
Our SPECULATIVE positions we may hold days to months, and with some over a year. We consider these potential break out positions, or trade them as options.
We will utilize our discussions about holdings in the order they list in our portfolio on the website.
Also make note that on our website we have a direct link to our up to date point and figure charting for all positions, and also positions we “watch”.
Chevron (CVX)
We bought this well and continue to hold. Nice dividend and the oil industry will rebound. Chevron has much risk inherent in lawsuits, and is aggressive in their exploratory methodology.
Hold, and use a 25% trailing stop loss
EXXON Mobil (XOM)
This is our largest single CORE position right now. We believe XOM is undervalued to the market, is being aggressively shorted, and will surprise everyone. It’s simply CHEAP under $60.00, we’re already up 17%, it pays a dividend, and Floyd believes it’s a potential $90.00 stock.
If trading options, trade ATM or ITM long -range calls. If buying the stock, use our traditional 25% trailing stop loss.
Health Management Services (HMSY)
We also read this speculative trade right, up over 44%. As healthcare changes (you know, we become communists) we will first have to figure out how we have created a “clusterphuck” of paperwork in the medical industry that RAISES cost. HMSY is an organizer company, managing and improving systems.
It’s well run, and has more upside.
We’d take 1/3 profit at 55% area. 25% trailing stop loss. Hold the position; do not buy at this time.
ITC Holdings (ITC)
Is an incredible concept -http://www.itctransco.com/
We bought and are up only 20%, because the stock is not yet known, and their concept of modernization of grid just beginning to be understood. It’s speculative, but a great move.
McDonalds (MCD)
1. Horrible food, builds obesity
2. Ugly buildings
3. Hideous customer service
4. Terrible dangerous little toys for children
5. The best system of “average” in the world. The food tastes like the same crap anywhere in the world, except for the French fries which they put drugs in
6. Execution business A+ BAR NONE.
We’re up 30%, it pays a dividend, and we’ll buy McD on any downturns. It’s a great “bad company”
Analy Capital Management REIT (NLY)
At one time last year we had a 120% return on this position and many took their first 1/3 of profits. The position is now up over 85%
Keep a 25% trailing stop loss, and HOLD
YUM Brands, Inc (YUM)
Pizza Hut, KFC, Taco Bell, etc.
And here’s McDonalds again, with a few changes:
1. Horrible food, builds obesity
2. Ugly buildings
3. Hideous customer service
4. Terrible dangerous little toys for children
5. The best system of “average” in the world. The food tastes like the same crap anywhere in the world, and it appears Asians are fried Chicken addicts
6. Execution business A+ BAR NONE.
We list this having just sold it for between 47 and 68% profits, plus dividends, but will be entering it again soon.
Wal-Mart (WMT)
Sadly this is another stock I love to hate. It’s a large box at the end of
a town that destroys local businesses, imports everything from China, and sells volume.
This company is the great logistics distribution company in the world. It has more money than we can imagine and executes.
A steady dividend, we hold this in our CORE account as a steady investment , using our standard 25% trailing stop loss.
Entry with WMT is fine anytime, and continue to buy.
Berkshire Hathaway B Shares (BRKB)
We know the story. The greatest investor in the world. We’ve shown returns of 50% in the old days, but did not add to the position during the downturn.
Many of our traders are sitting on hefty profits, having held the position with us over 5 years.
For the first time in BRKB charting history I am noticing a struggle at selling, and a more noticeable potential resistance area.
BRKB may be ripe for a drop. If you are profit oriented short term within your CORE account, we suggest selling 1/3 to 2/3 of your holdings if your returns are greater than 30%, as most of our traders are.
Templeton Emerging Market Fund (EMF)
We have owned this fund forever, and will hold it as long as Mark Mobius, the famed international trader, runs it. As a student of Sir John Templeton Mobius has allowed us returns as high as 200%, and currently over 150%.
We use a strict 25% trailing stop loss on EMF as emerging markets are volatile and unsteady. When many trading services recommend a variety of stocks and “plays” on China we sit back by the pool and let Mr. Mobius do our work.
Always a good buy on any dip. We list in our spreadsheet no trailing stop, for those that are risk oriented and simply accumulate on volatility.
Bristol Myers (BMY)
Blue Chip owns two pharmaceuticals and we’re in for the long term.
Hold, and use a 25% trailing stop.
BMY is sound, and has break out potential
NetFlix (NFLX)
Daughter Jenn who is learning the business and writes much of our final work recommended this on a simple “Dad, they have it together. None of the other ones do”. She’s been right. It’s up 60% and we’ve made money several times on calls.
We just recommended to sell a 1/3 of this position to lock in some profits.
JM Smuckers (SJM)
A kick ass “family company” that makes great profits and advertises perfectly.
We recommend this position be held if already accumulated, or purchased if not owned. Accumulate as a CORE position that has a dividend.
SJM actually looks like it has a healthy upside potential.
Caterpillar (CAT)
CAT is like a drama in the volatility that occurred during our ownership.
We’ve continued to add on dips and stand now with a 93% average gain.
Accumulate this position on any dips to a Point and Figure support line.
If you have great profits, take 1/3.
This is a long term CORE position charged for the” building of economies”
Each day this week we’ll outline in detail the rest of our portfolio.
Again, go online and see our charts on these holdings.
Be Well and Do Good
Floyd at Blue Chip Options
Idiots think this. (Sorry if you are one). But, it’s time to get REAL, as we watch stock market take away any profits, give them back, and resolutions being “stuck and lobbied”
A large part of the jigsaw is that consumers owe $14 trillion. This is all Obama's fault, like everything else. He and those Democrats (not a single Republican) are not focusing on JOBS that will allow people to spend.
Here's the facts:
1. There is $14 TRILLION in household debt, and $10.5 TRILLION of that mortgage related, thanks to Bubbles Greenspan.
2. Americans have now decided being upside down that is okay to PHUCK your bank. We predict more and more will just walk away from their mortgages as their homes lose more value.
Reduced spending may occur with this, as will rising delinquencies on credit cards and mortgage accounts.
3. A Floydian Fact of real merit: There is an astonishing decline in bank deposits, clear evidence we as a public are starting to burn through the cash.
4. Stephanie Pomboy, Market Maven, says there is almost a zero chance of our ratio of debt returning to 65%, what it was before Bubbles Greenspan came to head the FEDS, and we all believed him GOD, because the money was free. She analyzes that to decline our debt by 6.3 trillion, or increase income by 9 trillion would bring us to this 65% reasonable and healthy rate, would take up to 10 years to occur, and has a ZERO chance of occurring because 40% of our households now spend every dollar they make just to keep their heads above water.
Last week we updated our portfolio on the website and made a number of recommendations for sales of positions. We are continuing to do so, and to do our mid-year “MRI” of our holdings. It’s been an exceptional year and a half for Blue Chip Options.
We’ll begin in the Monday commentary with our analysis of our holdings, and continue through the week, so that all of our holdings are covered by weekend.
Please Make Note: People invest for different reasons, and at different times in their lives. Planners call this allocation. Traders call it sector changing. Money magazines explain to the average Joe investor that it is good to have holdings in a variety of positions, and of course, never to have all your money in your company stock, as they are likely going to phuck you.
We pick both stocks that we buy and hold (and buy more on downturns) that ALL pay dividends. These are our CORE positions.
Our SPECULATIVE positions we may hold days to months, and with some over a year. We consider these potential break out positions, or trade them as options.
We will utilize our discussions about holdings in the order they list in our portfolio on the website.
Also make note that on our website we have a direct link to our up to date point and figure charting for all positions, and also positions we “watch”.
Chevron (CVX)
We bought this well and continue to hold. Nice dividend and the oil industry will rebound. Chevron has much risk inherent in lawsuits, and is aggressive in their exploratory methodology.
Hold, and use a 25% trailing stop loss
EXXON Mobil (XOM)
This is our largest single CORE position right now. We believe XOM is undervalued to the market, is being aggressively shorted, and will surprise everyone. It’s simply CHEAP under $60.00, we’re already up 17%, it pays a dividend, and Floyd believes it’s a potential $90.00 stock.
If trading options, trade ATM or ITM long -range calls. If buying the stock, use our traditional 25% trailing stop loss.
Health Management Services (HMSY)
We also read this speculative trade right, up over 44%. As healthcare changes (you know, we become communists) we will first have to figure out how we have created a “clusterphuck” of paperwork in the medical industry that RAISES cost. HMSY is an organizer company, managing and improving systems.
It’s well run, and has more upside.
We’d take 1/3 profit at 55% area. 25% trailing stop loss. Hold the position; do not buy at this time.
ITC Holdings (ITC)
Is an incredible concept -http://www.itctransco.com/
We bought and are up only 20%, because the stock is not yet known, and their concept of modernization of grid just beginning to be understood. It’s speculative, but a great move.
McDonalds (MCD)
1. Horrible food, builds obesity
2. Ugly buildings
3. Hideous customer service
4. Terrible dangerous little toys for children
5. The best system of “average” in the world. The food tastes like the same crap anywhere in the world, except for the French fries which they put drugs in
6. Execution business A+ BAR NONE.
We’re up 30%, it pays a dividend, and we’ll buy McD on any downturns. It’s a great “bad company”
Analy Capital Management REIT (NLY)
At one time last year we had a 120% return on this position and many took their first 1/3 of profits. The position is now up over 85%
Keep a 25% trailing stop loss, and HOLD
YUM Brands, Inc (YUM)
Pizza Hut, KFC, Taco Bell, etc.
And here’s McDonalds again, with a few changes:
1. Horrible food, builds obesity
2. Ugly buildings
3. Hideous customer service
4. Terrible dangerous little toys for children
5. The best system of “average” in the world. The food tastes like the same crap anywhere in the world, and it appears Asians are fried Chicken addicts
6. Execution business A+ BAR NONE.
We list this having just sold it for between 47 and 68% profits, plus dividends, but will be entering it again soon.
Wal-Mart (WMT)
Sadly this is another stock I love to hate. It’s a large box at the end of
a town that destroys local businesses, imports everything from China, and sells volume.
This company is the great logistics distribution company in the world. It has more money than we can imagine and executes.
A steady dividend, we hold this in our CORE account as a steady investment , using our standard 25% trailing stop loss.
Entry with WMT is fine anytime, and continue to buy.
Berkshire Hathaway B Shares (BRKB)
We know the story. The greatest investor in the world. We’ve shown returns of 50% in the old days, but did not add to the position during the downturn.
Many of our traders are sitting on hefty profits, having held the position with us over 5 years.
For the first time in BRKB charting history I am noticing a struggle at selling, and a more noticeable potential resistance area.
BRKB may be ripe for a drop. If you are profit oriented short term within your CORE account, we suggest selling 1/3 to 2/3 of your holdings if your returns are greater than 30%, as most of our traders are.
Templeton Emerging Market Fund (EMF)
We have owned this fund forever, and will hold it as long as Mark Mobius, the famed international trader, runs it. As a student of Sir John Templeton Mobius has allowed us returns as high as 200%, and currently over 150%.
We use a strict 25% trailing stop loss on EMF as emerging markets are volatile and unsteady. When many trading services recommend a variety of stocks and “plays” on China we sit back by the pool and let Mr. Mobius do our work.
Always a good buy on any dip. We list in our spreadsheet no trailing stop, for those that are risk oriented and simply accumulate on volatility.
Bristol Myers (BMY)
Blue Chip owns two pharmaceuticals and we’re in for the long term.
Hold, and use a 25% trailing stop.
BMY is sound, and has break out potential
NetFlix (NFLX)
Daughter Jenn who is learning the business and writes much of our final work recommended this on a simple “Dad, they have it together. None of the other ones do”. She’s been right. It’s up 60% and we’ve made money several times on calls.
We just recommended to sell a 1/3 of this position to lock in some profits.
JM Smuckers (SJM)
A kick ass “family company” that makes great profits and advertises perfectly.
We recommend this position be held if already accumulated, or purchased if not owned. Accumulate as a CORE position that has a dividend.
SJM actually looks like it has a healthy upside potential.
Caterpillar (CAT)
CAT is like a drama in the volatility that occurred during our ownership.
We’ve continued to add on dips and stand now with a 93% average gain.
Accumulate this position on any dips to a Point and Figure support line.
If you have great profits, take 1/3.
This is a long term CORE position charged for the” building of economies”
Each day this week we’ll outline in detail the rest of our portfolio.
Again, go online and see our charts on these holdings.
Be Well and Do Good
Floyd at Blue Chip Options
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