Lean To Trade Calmly

So we find another 50 billion in Lehman stock fraud with Goldman, and Goldman playing the fake financial game with Greece, and the entire EU is affected.

The unraveling continues.

The GOP destroys all that is being attempted, and most of the U.S. doesn’t even know what is being discussed. Washington has become a card game.

90% of stocks are right now straining above their 50-day moving average.

Please, let me help. Keep perspective:

We are spiritual beings having a human experience. Learn to trade calmly, as an art, almost a way of Zen.

Falling in love with a stock is how we trade. We truly know very few stocks, and regularly update them on www.stockcharts.com for your review. We buy both value and breakout stocks, and split our holdings between core, speculative, and “rolls of dice” option and stock trades. Many of our traders use our services at Blue Chip for various types of information.

Telecommunications show the greatest actions while technology and oil and gas are the most out of favor sectors. It is never a bad time to buy more XOM (Exxon Mobil) and Chevron (CVX).

Gold could still hit 1160, but long term we are not as bullish for large increases, but merely stability. Traders may consider trimming or selling positions in GLD and CEF, but continue to hold AU. We will increase GLD and CEF again, never fear.

Crude may top out at 92.00, allowing more upside.

With the Aussie doing relatively well our investment in FAX should profit, as its based on Aussie, and Asian bonds.

With the upsurge the market has shown, and the number of days the market has been up, many analysts see April as a bullish month, with a sell off in May and June.

Upside target on the S &P of 1171.

Here are trends in ETF’s on moving sectors:

Nickel-26%

Biotech-19.66%

Homebuilding-19.12%

In today’s world these %’s will have changed within hours of the writing, and the analyst that shared “we just broke out to a new 18 month high” will be surprised by a 100 point sell off the following day.

It will soon be time to go long the Euro, and we believe the Euro will help the U.S. actually potentially show 3% growth in 2010, not because of our finances, but because of what we see happening with the Euro long term.

For all except the shortest-term players, the important question isn’t whether the market retrenches a bit, but whether this would like seguing into a definitive top.

I’ve said this before: in 1980 household debt was about 50% of GDP; by 2007 it has reached 100% of GDP. Prior to 1980 usury laws were set at 10%; former Fed chairman Volker altered usury laws, allowing interest rates to rise to levels not seen since the days of ancient Rome. Volker with this move did break the back of runaway inflation; however, at the same time the change in the usury laws set in motion the doubling of the debt.

Now couple this with Greenspan’s experiment of unique ways to finance real estate (to keep his bubble going), and finally the great unraveling of our financial pyramid scheme. If one asks the average American the “cause” of the recession over 76% answer “Housing”, when it was only a small part of the meltdown.

However equivocal the message from the FOMC, and for all Mr. Bernanke aims to please, he’s plainly antsy about the ultimate consequences of zero interest rates. It’s time to buy TIPS again, and it’s time to buy long term Treasuries, TLT.

We know TIP, we trade it regularly. Just add this back into your core portfolio, with no trailing stop, and continue to hold.

With TLT, we have not traded this often in this past year, so an update.

When we last sold TLT we netted 20% returns, and we were doing so as a stock.

In 2007 and 2008 we had an amazing run trading puts and calls on TLT as we watched the stock (falling in love with it). Buy TLT when it closes above 91.50

We’ll issue a buy on TLT, no trailing stop, to be held in the core portfolio and also list a call on TLT for the higher risk trader.

Buy both TLT (only other specific market conditions) and TIP and hold

Consider as a call option on TLT the following:

TLT100619C90

TLT JUN 2010 90.0000 CALL

Best buy: When TLT closes above 91.50

Do not trade until it hits this number. Hold for some time, and on any downturn with another 20% drop buys double in your position. Buying at 91.50 assures we are already in breakout

Hold for 80% to 100%, no stop loss

We believe everyone is wrong on the Chinese Yuan, and it will go much higher.

Washington’s emphasis on China’s currency may miss the bigger point of how dramatically the country is changing in other important ways.

IBM remains one of the absolute best buys in the market. Technology is an out of play sector, at a bottom, and IBM stands in a unique position. Continue to buy IBM on any consolidation.

Recession or Depression, Thoughts and Commentary

There is much to talk about, and many recommendations within this commentary. As the market corrects in coming weeks or days we see a number of buying opportunities.

For Conservative investors, consider:

Evergreen Investments Large Company Growth Fund

7.6% in Google, 7.4% in Amazon, 6.8% in Visa, 4% in UPS, 4.5 % in Oracle. Are just part of the top holdings that had it reach 63.07% growth last year, with a 5.38% year average.

This is a great mutual fund for a new subscriber that wants to buy a well diversified stable fund.

Now some “facts”

· 4100 executives, directors, and analysts chose these 10 as the most admired companies:

1. Apple

2. Google

3. Berkshire Hathaway

4. Johnson and Johnson

5. Amazon

6. Proctor and Gamble

7. Toyota

8. Goldman Sachs

9. Wal-Mart

10. Coca-Cola

· The total household debt in 2009 was 13.5 trillion, doing a proportionately good job to our national debt.

· Christopher Hayes in Fortune sounds just like Floyd, but nicer:

“In the past decade nearly every pillar institution in American Society—whether it be GM, Congress, Wall Street, Major League baseball, the Catholic Church, or mainstream media—has revealed itself to be corrupt, incompetent, or both.

And at the root of these failures are the people who run the institutions, the bright and industrious minds who occupy the commanding heights of our meritocratic order. In exchange for their power, status and remuneration, they are supposed to make everything operate smoothly.”

From Floyd: Simply put, we believed the fucks were in charge and were protecting us. We will now, and being fought all the way by the above, have to reform our institutions to reconstitute a more reliable and democratic form of authority.

However, Hayes says, “scholarly research show a firm correlation between strong institutions, accountable elites, and highly functional economies, compared to mistrust and corruption (what we have now) that creates mistrust and corruption, meanwhile, feed each other in a vicious circle.”

If our current crisis continues we risk a long and ugly process of “de-development: higher levels of corruption and tax evasion, and an increasingly fractured public sphere, in which both public consensus and reform become all but impossible.

In fact, a recent ad tells us “Achievement very rarely happens while doing yoga on a hilltop at sunset”.

Then, what is achievement?

Wilbur Ross: “I think a big opportunity is coming in the municipal bond market. Even if it doesn’t default, some state or local government will come close enough to scare everyone to death. That will be a wonderful buying opportunity”

Any of the Vanguard Municipal Bond Funds, either by your state and tax exempt, or general grade bonds, should be considered for their low fees and “index” management.

Are you shocked by Wall Street’s role in the now known Greek Debt Debacle? You shouldn’t be. This is how the big banks grind out the profits, on falsified financials and hiding data. After they did this Goldman and the boys actually placed bets that the debt wouldn’t be paid.

Remember this when you realize that 80% of the bills and cabinet posts Obama has tried to build or get through are NEVER EVEN VOTED ON, but held in some form of evil GOP filibuster to make an administration look as if they have done little right, when in reality they are thwarted by those (the GOP) that actually care less about their country NOW, but more about being the majority again in 2012.

We believe there are deep value opportunities in insurance stocks, which were beaten down because of their exposure to the subprime crisis, and commercial real estate. Many of these companies used to trade at 1.5 to 2.0% times earnings, but now trade at .75% of book value

Principal Financial Group, Des Moines, Ia, is a well run, conservative insurance company with no dirty hands that have touched it.

· We would recommend PFG at market with a PNF stop loss of 18.50 to 20.00, or double buys at these support lines for a long-term hold.

PFG will be held in our core portfolio.

Students of the future should be studying Africa, the new frontier for growth. More companies are cultivating change by making sure their investments are inclusive and sustainable in Africa.

They are figuring it out.

Bankers remain upbeat about the economic outlook for Africa a year after a drop in demand for commodities hit it. Longer term the need for commodities Africa holds will shift cycles in the laws of supply and demand.

Africa comprises 20.4% of the Earth’s landmass, and GDP growth keeps Africa in a positive relation to BRIC nations.

In the world of mobile telephony, Africa is the last great growth frontier, where penetration rates are 40 to 50%. MTN Group (MTN), which trades on the South African exchange, and over the counter as MTNOY. This is fast growing, cheap, risky value stock. Value stocks are typically not risky, but MTN faces the rivals of a burgeoning and confusing African economy, which we think is also the next international growth frontier

· MTNOY is so unknown it’s not yet even listed as a Pnf Chart, but it is not unknown around the world. It showed a 70% growth last year, and currently trades at $16.14. MTNOY is a value, long term play, we recommend in any speculative portfolio, using a 25% trailing stop loss.

Apple (AAPL) has hit new highs of 226.60. Those of you that joined us on our January 2011 $300 Call Leap on Apple have been pleasantly surprised already.

Holders of the stock in our portfolio have been handsomely rewarded.

This is a $300.00 stock. Buy it on any dips, or as the “world is falling” and hold.

They will have failures, successes, but Apple has CASH, brains, and thinks out of the box. They are innovators.

As an example, with Microsoft I think (control, alt, delete). They are a manufacturer, and less of an innovator.

“What has always distinguished a recession from a depression is that a stock market drop may signal a recession, but it is the collapse in debt that signals a depression” -keyturningdates.com