Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Where to Make Money on Energy under Obama


As environmental work develops under the Obama Administration traders are watching for what sectors to invest in to catch this development.
Talking heads abound with information about solar, wind, geothermal,natural gas (Pickens Plan) and nuclear.

It's math. Solar, Wind take an incredible amount of capital to develop ENOUGH power to make any changes. They are good, but as economists and environmentalists begin looking at nuclear (and all baby boomers shudder from memory) we'll all begin seeing nuclear can be cheap and produce clean energy.

The area not understood, that is being analyzed, is geothermal energy. To a simpleton like Floyd this means: harnessing the heat of the Earth to produce electricity. These are simple wells drilled into the earth that allow steam to rise to the surface. This spins turbines and it generates electricity.

Right now there are only 50 countries around the world harnessing geothermal energy, although it is rumored that Sarah Palin may be considering producing enough of this gas just from her Twits and You Tube insanity.

Transmission companies like ITC, one of our holdings, will do well with any of these programs.

I firmly believe that environmental energy development will be the next real estate bubble, with insane values being created as the development begins.

Geothermal costs big bucks, but the government believes it's the long range answer, and they are covering 1/3 of the current construction costs through grants.

Monday, August 24, 2009

Is The Market following The Charts?


Last Monday the market corrected almost 200 points. This email is being written a week later, and I'll let you draw your conclusions on what the market has done. The facts of the week are all in.

That same Monday I received identification from a prestigious technician and stock charter as follows:

"-Overbought S&P 500 backs down from 1000 barrier. 1000 retested the November peak, and by moving to top resistance at 1014, the S&P actually had retraced Fib 38% of the entire 2007/2009 bear market.

-The RSI line was dropping for a test of its 50 line

-MACD signals were all turning negative

-A short term pullback could find support at S&P500 950, and a more serious pullback could reach the July low, that would represent a 38% retracement of the five month average. It would also provide a test of the rising 200 day average which should provide support."

For four weeks, during the last euphoric run up, Floyd has been referring to the bullish percent index for stocks, and for indices, being too high. Anything over 70 in the bullish percent index shows overbought. The chart above shows how the bullish index looks for the OEX on 8/18.

Run a comparison now. Learn to use bullish percent indicators for the simple "no noise" charting that they can provide.

All the noise we may need in the world, RSI, MACD, oscillators, moving averages, head and shoulders formation, still comes down to supply and demand, and cause and effect.

Any overbought or oversold condition eventually reverses, sometimes dramatically.